blocks|key|115379|text|这个问题我已经问了将近十年了。在我的业务中，我们构建和销售Windows和Web应用程序，它们做的是大致相同的事情。四年前，我会告诉你，到目前为止，我们已经有80-20个人支持web应用程序。然而，就出货量而言，我们仍然有60-40人支持Windows应用程序。|type|unstyled|depth|inlineStyleRanges|entityRanges|data|115380|虽然我曾经认为，接受软件即服务的真正障碍只是对更好、更丰富的用户界面的渴望(+Silverlight、Air等可以解决)，但我现在倾向于认为，有很多人只是喜欢一次性购买和本地控制，而不是web连接的订阅模式。因为这种偏好根植于个人对金钱价值的看法，我认为技术改变的速度不会像我们技术专家认为的那样快。因此，我敢打赌，Windows应用程序存在的时间比我们开发人员预期的要长，至少还要再活10年。|115381|entityMap^0|0|0^^$0|@$1|2|3|4|5|6|7|F|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|B|3|C|5|6|7|G|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|D|3|-4|5|6|7|H|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]]|E|$]]

I've been asking this question for nearly a decade. In my business we build and sell both Windows and Web apps that do roughly the same thing. Four years ago I would have told you that we'd be 80-20 in favor of web apps by now. However, in terms of the numbers shipped, we are still about 60-40 in favor of the Windows apps. 

While I once thought that the real barrier to the acceptance of software as a service was simply a desire for a better, richer user interface (which Silverlight, Air, etc. would solve), I'm now inclined to think that there are a lot of people who simply prefer a one-time purchase and local control over a web connected subscription model. Because this preference is rooted in personal perceptions of value for the money, I don't think that technology will change anything as quickly as we technologists think it will. Thus, I'd wager that Windows apps are with us for longer than we developers will ever expect; another 10 years at least.

blocks|key|4179190|text|不，直到有人想出一个非常好的论据来解释为什么我应该让别人控制我的数据。并保证我的互联网连接始终处于打开状态，并且随时随地都可用。|type|unstyled|depth|inlineStyleRanges|entityRanges|data|4179191|entityMap^0|0^^$0|@$1|2|3|4|5|6|7|D|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|B|3|-4|5|6|7|E|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]]|C|$]]

No, not until someone comes up with a very good argument for why I should let someone else control my data. And guarantees that my Internet connection is always on and available everywhere.

blocks|key|115001|text|我问The+Magic+Eight+Ball+-它说，“不可能！”|type|unstyled|depth|inlineStyleRanges|entityRanges|offset|length|data|115002|entityMap|0|LINK|mutability|MUTABLE|url|http://web.ics.purdue.edu/~ssanty/cgi-bin/eightball.cgi^0|2|K|0|0^^$0|@$1|2|3|4|5|6|7|L|8|@]|9|@$A|M|B|N|1|O]]|C|$]]|$1|D|3|-4|5|6|7|P|8|@]|9|@]|C|$]]]|E|$F|$5|G|H|I|C|$J|K]]]]

I asked <a href="http://web.ics.purdue.edu/~ssanty/cgi-bin/eightball.cgi" rel="noreferrer">The Magic Eight Ball</a> - it said, "No way!"

blocks|key|115668|text|就我个人而言，我的梦想是，你可以随身携带一个U盘，里面有操作系统和你使用的所有应用程序，以及你所有的个人设置。您可以将此驱动器连接到您遇到的任何计算机上，并且每次都可以获得您自己的个性化体验，无论您使用的是哪台计算机。您始终可以访问您的所有应用程序和所有数据。当你晚上回到家，或者登记到指定的计算机时，将执行备份，这样你就不必担心丢失所有数据。这有点类似于Gdium和G-Key正在做的事情，但我认为/希望这样的想法在未来会变得更受欢迎。|type|unstyled|depth|inlineStyleRanges|entityRanges|offset|length|data|115669|entityMap|0|LINK|mutability|MUTABLE|url|http://www.gdium.com/^0|4Y|5|0|0^^$0|@$1|2|3|4|5|6|7|L|8|@]|9|@$A|M|B|N|1|O]]|C|$]]|$1|D|3|-4|5|6|7|P|8|@]|9|@]|C|$]]]|E|$F|$5|G|H|I|C|$J|K]]]]

Personally my dream for this is that you will just carry around a USB stick that contains an OS and all the applications you use, along with all your personal settings. You can hook up this drive to any computer you come across, and get your own personalized experience every time, no matter which computer you are using. You always have access to all your applications, and all you data. When you get home at night, or check into specified computers, A backup is performed so that you don't have to worry about losing all your data. This is somewhat similar to what is being done with <a href="http://www.gdium.com/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Gdium</a>, and the G-Key, but I think/hope ideas like this will become much more popular in the future.

blocks|key|115595|text|答案很可能是否定的，除非我们发现宇宙中的秘密物理或其他一些奇怪的漏洞。现在来看一些科幻小说。|type|unstyled|depth|inlineStyleRanges|entityRanges|data|115596|想想看，有一天我们可能会有Quantum+Cloud服务器，可以每秒处理一千万亿次FLOPS，然而就我们所知，我们不能以比光速更快的速度发送这些结果。|115597|所以现在想象一下“超级云”，它可以在1毫秒内处理任何事情，但是如果这些结果不能在几毫秒内收到，那么“性能很差”。想象一下，例如一艘太空船，它不可能依赖于云服务器，它需要一个“桌面”。|115598|现在这听起来很疯狂，但即使是在2008年的今天，光子从CPU芯片的一侧到另一侧所需的时间也会比晶体管栅极状态改变所需的时间更长。所以我们已经达到了不能超过光速的极限。|115599|entityMap^0|0|0|0|0^^$0|@$1|2|3|4|5|6|7|J|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|B|3|C|5|6|7|K|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|D|3|E|5|6|7|L|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|F|3|G|5|6|7|M|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|H|3|-4|5|6|7|N|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]]|I|$]]

The answer is very likely No, unless we discover secret physics in our universe or some other odd loopholes. Now for some sci-fi.

Consider this, one day we may have Quantum Cloud Servers that can process a Gazillion FLOPS per seconds, however as far as our knowledge goes we cannot send those results any faster than the speed of light.

So now imagine that the "Super Cloud", that can process anything no matter what, in 1 mili second, but if those results can't be received within a few mili seconds the "performance sucks". Imagine a space ship for example it can't possible rely on a cloud server, it would need a "Desktop".

Now this sounds crazy, but even today, as of 2008, a photon will take longer to cross from one side of a CPU chip to the other, than it takes to for the transistors gate-states to change. So we are already reaching the no faster than speed of light limit.

blocks|key|115426|text|所以我们需要的只是愚蠢的终端？我们以前不是来过这里吗？好吧，好吧，它们肯定会是更漂亮的多媒体应用程序。但是，愚蠢的终端，仍然如此。|type|unstyled|depth|inlineStyleRanges|entityRanges|data|115427|看起来钟摆不应该向后摆动那么远。|115428|entityMap^0|0|0^^$0|@$1|2|3|4|5|6|7|F|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|B|3|C|5|6|7|G|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|D|3|-4|5|6|7|H|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]]|E|$]]

So all we'll need are dumb terminals? Haven't we been here before? Well, ok, they'll certainly be prettier applications with multimedia and all of that. But, dumb terminals, none the less.

It doesn't seem like the pendulum should swing quite that far back.

blocks|key|115028|text|web技术真正取代桌面应用程序还需要相当长的一段时间，但我毫不怀疑这会在某一时刻发生。技术进步太快，持续不断，这是不可能发生的。|type|unstyled|depth|inlineStyleRanges|entityRanges|data|115029|不过，我怀疑你提到的任何一种技术都不会与之相关。我认为浏览器将朝着类似于VM的状态发展，这种状态越来越强大，能够创造越来越好的web体验。|115030|entityMap^0|0|0^^$0|@$1|2|3|4|5|6|7|F|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|B|3|C|5|6|7|G|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|D|3|-4|5|6|7|H|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]]|E|$]]

It will be quite a while before web technologies can truly replace desktop applications, but I have no doubt it will happen at some point. Technology advances too fast and consistently for it not to happen.

I doubt that any of the technologies you mentioned will be relevant then though. I think browsers will move towards a VM-like state that has increasingly more power to create better and better web experiences.

blocks|key|115285|text|是的，但我怀疑将占主导地位的技术是否存在。|type|unstyled|depth|inlineStyleRanges|entityRanges|data|115286|entityMap^0|0^^$0|@$1|2|3|4|5|6|7|D|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|B|3|-4|5|6|7|E|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]]|C|$]]

Yes, but I doubt the technology that will dominate exists yet.

blocks|key|3333431|text|不是的。以数据为中心的应用程序和以通信为中心的应用程序可以云化。然而，以处理为中心的应用程序不太适合被转储到web上。|type|unstyled|depth|inlineStyleRanges|entityRanges|data|3333432|entityMap^0|0^^$0|@$1|2|3|4|5|6|7|D|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|B|3|-4|5|6|7|E|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]]|C|$]]

No. Data-centric apps and communication-centric apps can be cloudized. However, processing-centric apps are less ameneble to being dumped onto the web.

blocks|key|4178812|text|对于web应用程序来说，繁重的图像处理和游戏可能有点太重了，但我认为许多应用程序最终都会如此。|type|unstyled|depth|inlineStyleRanges|entityRanges|data|4178813|entityMap^0|0^^$0|@$1|2|3|4|5|6|7|D|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|B|3|-4|5|6|7|E|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]]|C|$]]

Heavy image processing and gaming might be a bit too heavy for a web application, but I think that many applications will eventually.

blocks|key|924328|text|不，桌面应用程序目前只是停滞不前。一旦我们最终解决了安全这个小问题，它就会全力以赴。|type|unstyled|depth|inlineStyleRanges|entityRanges|data|924329|entityMap^0|0^^$0|@$1|2|3|4|5|6|7|D|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|B|3|-4|5|6|7|E|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]]|C|$]]

Nope, desktop applications are just stuck in limbo at the moment. It'll come back in full force once we finally solve the little issue of security.

blocks|key|924395|text|我真的不认为这会在短期内发生，我说的很快就是在未来10到15年内。甚至不知道为什么会有人想这样做。密集的游戏、定量金融以及科学和国防，这些都不会从在web浏览器中运行受益。|type|unstyled|depth|inlineStyleRanges|entityRanges|data|924396|entityMap^0|0^^$0|@$1|2|3|4|5|6|7|D|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|B|3|-4|5|6|7|E|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]]|C|$]]

I really don't see how this is going to happen any time soon, and by soon I mean in the next 10 to 15 years. Or even why one would want to. Intensive games, quantitative finance and science and defense, none of these would benefit from running in a web browser.

blocks|key|3333401|text|我认为对于浏览器(HTML/Java/CSS/Flash/其他什么)来说，要使本机应用程序黯然失色，计算机体系结构(CPU/内存)的性能必须变得非常强大，以便您能够在浏览器框架内运行硬实时进程，而不会看到任何确定性或硬实时性能的降低。|type|unstyled|depth|inlineStyleRanges|entityRanges|data|3333402|这将需要在计算方面取得一些真正重大的进步，到目前为止，预计在未来十年内不会出现这种情况。|3333403|entityMap^0|0|0^^$0|@$1|2|3|4|5|6|7|F|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|B|3|C|5|6|7|G|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|D|3|-4|5|6|7|H|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]]|E|$]]

I think for browsers (HTML/Java/CSS/Flash/Whatever) to eclipse native applications in the truest sense, the performance of computer architectures (CPU/Memory) will have to become so enormously powerful that you'd be capable of running a hard real-time process inside a browser framework and not see any reduced determinism or hard-real time performance.

That will require some truly significant advancements in computing, which as of now are not expected in the next decade.

blocks|key|4179261|text|WebApps在很多方面都很棒，但真正的障碍仍然是性能和本地硬件集成。|type|unstyled|depth|inlineStyleRanges|entityRanges|data|4179262|如果有一个很好的原生应用程序可以做一些事情，而AIR应用程序可以做同样的事情，我总是会使用原生应用程序。HTTP有它的局限性。|4179263|entityMap^0|0|0^^$0|@$1|2|3|4|5|6|7|F|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|B|3|C|5|6|7|G|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|D|3|-4|5|6|7|H|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]]|E|$]]

WebApps are great for a lot of things, but really the dealbreaker still is performance and local hardware integration. 

If there's a good native app to do something, and an AIR app to do the same thing, I'll always use the native app. HTTP has it's limitations.

blocks|key|920043|text|我想他们会互相支持的。可以有web托管的组件和本地的部件。Flex应用程序可以使用本地沙箱和浏览器沙箱。如果Silverlight还没有这样做，它将需要这样做。|type|unstyled|depth|inlineStyleRanges|entityRanges|data|920044|entityMap^0|0^^$0|@$1|2|3|4|5|6|7|D|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|B|3|-4|5|6|7|E|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]]|C|$]]

I think they will coopt each other. It will be possible to have components that are web-hosted, and parts that are local. Flex apps can use both local and browser sandboxes. If Silverlight doesn't yet, it will need to.

blocks|key|3333659|text|许多个人并不关心他们把家庭度假照片放在哪里，但大企业会非常小心他们在云中释放的东西。|type|unstyled|depth|inlineStyleRanges|entityRanges|data|3333660|entityMap^0|0^^$0|@$1|2|3|4|5|6|7|D|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|B|3|-4|5|6|7|E|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]]|C|$]]

Individuals many not care where they put the family holiday pics but big business will be very careful what they let loose in the cloud.

blocks|key|3333701|text|人们过于沉迷于寻找“下一个大事件”。这真的无关紧要！今天存在的web和桌面只不过是两个独立的应用程序平台。这些平台之间的界限越来越模糊，但对于开发应用程序的人来说，这两个平台都有优点和缺点，最终，用户只关心最好的应用程序在哪里。|type|unstyled|depth|inlineStyleRanges|entityRanges|data|3333702|我说两者都会继续存在，但很快你就无法从最终用户的角度来区分它们了。|3333703|entityMap^0|0|0^^$0|@$1|2|3|4|5|6|7|F|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|B|3|C|5|6|7|G|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|D|3|-4|5|6|7|H|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]]|E|$]]

People get way too caught up in looking for "the next big thing". It doesn't really matter! The web and the desktop as they exist today are nothing more than two separate platforms for apps. The line between those platforms is blurring more and more, but both platforms have advantages and disadvantages for people making apps, and in the end, the user only cares where the best apps are.

I say both will stay around, but soon enough you won't be able to tell them apart from an end-user point of view.

blocks|key|924612|text|这就像争论花生酱将取代果冻一样。事实是，它们单独运行都很好，甚至在许多情况下一起使用时效果更好。就我个人而言，我认为未来将会看到这两个实例的大多数组合使用，而不是单独使用一个或另一个。也就是说，总会有一些单独的实例来说明这一点--我认为维基百科或flickr不会很快成为独立的应用程序。同样，我确信有一些桌面应用程序不会从启用web中受益(尽管奇怪的是，我现在想不出一个好的例子)。|type|unstyled|depth|inlineStyleRanges|entityRanges|data|924613|我也同意之前的观点，即两者之间的界限将变得越来越模糊。|924614|entityMap^0|0|0^^$0|@$1|2|3|4|5|6|7|F|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|B|3|C|5|6|7|G|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|D|3|-4|5|6|7|H|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]]|E|$]]

This is like arguing peanut butter is going to replace jelly. The truth is they both function fine alone or even better when used together in MANY cases. Personally I think the future will see a majority of instances of both being used in combination rather than separately one or the other. That said, there will always be separate instances where it makes sense - I don't see wikipedia or flickr becoming stand alone apps anytime soon. Similarly, I am sure there are desktop apps which have no benefit from being web enabled (although oddly enough I can't think of a good example at the moment).

I also agree with previous posters that the line between the two will become increasingly blurred.

blocks|key|3333191|text|目前像eyeOS这样的东西已经有了很长的路要走，但归根结底是纯粹的性能和游戏，浏览器所能做的是有限的。|type|unstyled|depth|inlineStyleRanges|entityRanges|offset|length|data|3333192|entityMap|0|LINK|mutability|MUTABLE|url|http://eyeos.org/en/^0|3|5|0|0^^$0|@$1|2|3|4|5|6|7|L|8|@]|9|@$A|M|B|N|1|O]]|C|$]]|$1|D|3|-4|5|6|7|P|8|@]|9|@]|C|$]]]|E|$F|$5|G|H|I|C|$J|K]]]]

There are things out there at the moment like <a href="http://eyeos.org/en/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">eyeOS</a> which are coming a long way, but when it boils down to sheer performance and gaming there's a limit to what browsers can do.

blocks|key|4179444|text|谷歌推出Google+Chrome+OS是为了打赌桌面应用程序将不再是必不可少的。|type|unstyled|depth|inlineStyleRanges|entityRanges|offset|length|data|4179445|entityMap|0|LINK|mutability|MUTABLE|url|http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2009/07/introducing-google-chrome-os.html^0|4|G|0|0^^$0|@$1|2|3|4|5|6|7|L|8|@]|9|@$A|M|B|N|1|O]]|C|$]]|$1|D|3|-4|5|6|7|P|8|@]|9|@]|C|$]]]|E|$F|$5|G|H|I|C|$J|K]]]]

Google has introduced <a href="http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2009/07/introducing-google-chrome-os.html" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Google Chrome OS</a> as a bet that the desktop applications will no longer be essential.

Will everything go to the cloud? If so, in which direction? Google-Gears? Flash,AIR,JavaFX?
<hr />
<h3>See also: <a href="https://stackoverflow.com/questions/655365/does-desktop-development-matter">Does desktop development matter?</a></h3>

Will web applications replace desktop applications?

翻译质量差，导致语言生硬或混乱。

没有提供实际的解决方法或示例。

解答不清晰，无法理解或解决问题。

页面排版不美观，阅读体验差。

文章

问答

视频

学习中心

腾讯云实验室

直播

竞赛

腾讯云代码分析专区

腾讯iOA零信任安全管理系统专区

腾讯云架构师技术同盟交流圈

腾讯云数据库专区

腾讯云顾问专区

腾讯云原生专区

腾讯混元专区

腾讯云TCE专区

腾讯云Lighthouse专区

腾讯云HAI专区

腾讯云Edgeone专区

腾讯云存储专区

腾讯云智能专区

腾讯轻联专区 

腾讯云开发专区

TAPD专区

腾讯轻量云游戏服专区

腾讯云最具价值专家

腾讯云架构师技术同盟

腾讯云创作之星

腾讯云开发者先锋

腾讯云代码助手

云原生构建

TAPD 敏捷项目管理

Cloud Studio

SDK中心

API中心

命令行工具

涵盖代码开发、场景应用、自动测试全流程，助你从零构建专属AI助手

一站式MCP教程库，解锁AI应用新玩法

一切都会上云吗？如果是，朝哪个方向发展？Google-Gears？Flash，AIR，JavaFX？另请参阅：

问web应用程序会取代桌面应用程序吗？
EN

回答 20

Stack Overflow用户

Stack Overflow用户

Stack Overflow用户

社区

活动

圈层

关于

腾讯云开发者

热门产品

热门推荐

更多推荐

问web应用程序会取代桌面应用程序吗？EN

回答 20

Stack Overflow用户

Stack Overflow用户

Stack Overflow用户

社区

活动

圈层

关于

腾讯云开发者

热门产品

热门推荐

更多推荐

问web应用程序会取代桌面应用程序吗？
EN