2024年苹果汽车引发混合反应的报告

一些分析师对苹果正在准备在2024年发布自己的自动驾驶汽车的报告表示怀疑。

路透社周一报道，面向消费者的新车将包括苹果公司开发的突破性电池技术，该技术将“彻底”降低电池成本并增加车辆的续驶里程。

它解释说该电池采用“单电池”设计，该电池可以将更多的活性材料装入其中，从而扩大了其使用范围。该公司还正在考虑使用不太可能过热的磷酸铁锂来进行电池化学处理。

该报告还指出，目前尚不清楚谁来组装该汽车，但预计苹果将与制造合作伙伴合作生产该汽车。

该报告承认，尽管如此，苹果仍有机会退出其自动驾驶汽车计划，并将其自动驾驶系统出售给传统汽车制造商。

自2014年苹果首次着手设计自己的汽车以来，该公司以“泰坦计划”的名义共同从事汽车研发。

苹果的政策是不对有关未来产品的报道发表评论。

没有意义的努力？

位于加利福尼亚坎贝尔的技术咨询公司Creative Strategies 总裁蒂姆·巴贾林（Tim Bajarin）表示：“我仍然不相信苹果公司在生产一款真正的汽车。”

“一方面，汽车可能很危险，”他告诉TechNewsWorld。“每年有数千人死于交通事故，蒂姆·库克和苹果永远不可能制造出百分百安全的汽车。”

他补充说：“我不确定苹果是否愿意承担这种责任。”

JD Power汽车部门总裁道格·贝茨（Doug Betts）解释说，苹果公司现在生产的产品不存在汽车所具有的安全性问题。

他告诉TechNewsWorld：“如果iPhone出现故障，您可以将其带回商店。” “汽车中的东西可能会变成更加严重的安全问题。”

Strategy Analytics全球汽车业务副总监Roger C. Lanctot称，潜在的苹果自动驾驶汽车“是毫无意义的努力，不希望的头痛和潜在的灾难性客户体验”。

他对TechNewsWorld说：“五年前，'iCar'听起来很性感，令人兴奋。” “经过五年令人沮丧的iPhone体验，我不确定市场是否正在寻求这种解决方案。”

他说：“消费者对Rivian和Nikola，Nio和Polestar等公司以及其他许多中国人的公司感到兴奋。” “另外，我们现在拥有福特Mach-E，而且看起来像是Corvette EV。”苹果，新电池技术？谁在乎呢？

健康资产负债表

ABI Research的 智能移动和汽车领域首席分析师James Hodgson表示，苹果进入汽车市场似乎已经很长时间了。

他对TechNewsWorld表示：“有一些引人注目的员工和一些收购，因此他们已经在汽车行业徘徊了一段时间。”

但是，他补充说：“他们手头有足够的规模和足够的现金来调查这些机会，而无需承诺。”

霍奇森对该报告感到惊讶，该报告称苹果将采用传统的汽车制造销售业务模式进军汽车领域。

他观察到：“仅仅在市场建设和销售汽车方面扮演另一个角色，并不是苹果竞争对手所采取的态度。” “他们采取了广泛的行动方式，而不是随身携带游戏。”

低利润率

霍奇森承认，“如果苹果进入传统的汽车市场，他会感到非常惊讶：在轮毂上制造一个尽可能少的盒子，并尽可能多地出售它。这在我看来很奇怪。”

奇怪的原因之一是汽车市场相对于出行市场的规模。霍奇森估计，汽车市场规模将达到2万亿美元，而汽车市场的规模为10万亿美元。

他解释说：“这就是具有技术背景的玩家进入移动市场的原因。”

奇怪的另一个原因是汽车业务的传统利润率。

贝茨解释说：“从历史上看，汽车行业的利润并不惊人。” “如果您以40％的利润率销售产品，为什么要出售汽车？没有人能以40％的利润率获得汽车。”

时间对吗？

如果出行市场更大，而汽车市场的利润微薄，为什么要制造自动驾驶汽车呢？

兰科特推测说：“苹果这样做可能是为了避免简单地以股息的形式将数十亿美元返还给投资者，或者是由于无法确定任何更具吸引力的市场进入或公司购买的原因。”

霍奇森补充说，进入市场的时机可能是正确的。

他解释说：“现在看到新进入汽车市场的原因是由于电气化。” “进入市场的最大障碍是内燃机。制造一台既安全又经济，满足政府标准的内燃机真的很难。”

他继续说：“这一障碍正在消除。” “特斯拉利用了这一优势。它使它能够绕过阻止新竞争对手进入汽车市场的传统障碍。”

尽管如此，仍然存在重大障碍。有一个复杂的供应链，由第一级供应商组成，这些供应商集成了第二级供应商的产品。有许多关于安全，排放和可持续性的标准和法规。需要建立经销商的分销网络-可能需要三到五年才能制造出需要在道路上生存10到15年的车辆。

霍奇森说：“这就是为什么制造汽车很困难，而且很少汽车制造商可以做到这一点。”

品牌力量

如果苹果从事汽车制造，它将必须向消费者提供其竞争对手无法提供的东西。

兰科特坚持认为：“不幸的是，苹果没有任何产品。” “苹果公司开创的大多数经验-应用程序访问和管理，内容管理和交付，电子商务，用户界面-都已被竞争对手所接受和超越。”

但是霍奇森认为，苹果公司处于有利地位，可以利用对未来汽车购买者至关重要的优势。

他解释说：“汽车上的老牌差异化器是一种平稳，高效且令人兴奋的发动机。” “这在未来将不再那么重要。未来的差异化因素将是令人信服的数字体验。”

苹果还具有另一个强大的吸引力，可以吸引人们使用其自动驾驶汽车。

贝茨指出：“您不能低估品牌的力量。”“即使苹果公司只是生产带有徽标的汽车，人们也会排队购买，就像现在新的iPhone出现在商场里排队一样。”

A report that Apple is readying its own self-driving car for release in 2024 is being met with a healthy dose of skepticism by some analysts.

The new vehicle for consumers would include breakthrough battery technology developed by Apple that would "radically" reduce the cost of batteries and increase the vehicle's driving range, Reuters reported Monday.

It explained the battery uses a "monocell" design that allows more active material to be packed into it and thereby extend its range. The company is also looking into using lithium iron phosphate, which is less likely to overheat, for the battery's chemistry.

Also noted in the report is that it's unclear who would assemble the vehicle, but Apple is expected to work with a manufacturing partner to produce the auto.

The report acknowledged, though, that there's still a chance that Apple will pull back from its autonomous vehicle plans and just sell its autonomous driving system to a traditional automaker.

Since 2014, when Apple first set out to design its own vehicle, the company has engaged in automotive research and development collectively under the name "Project Titan."

Apple's policy is not to comment on reports about purported future products.

Pointless Endeavor?

"I am still not convinced that Apple is doing an actual car," observed Tim Bajarin, president of Creative Strategies, a technology advisory firm in Campbell, Calif.

"For one thing, cars can be dangerous," he told TechNewsWorld. "Thousands of deaths each year are attributed to car accidents, and Tim Cook and Apple could never create a 100 percent safe car."

"I am not sure that Apple wants to ever take on that kind of liability," he added.

Doug Betts, president of the automotive division of J.D. Power, explained that the products that Apple makes now don't have the kinds of safety issues autos have.

"If an iPhone fails, you take it back to the store," he told TechNewsWorld. "Cars have things that can turn into safety issues that are much more serious."

Roger C. Lanctot, the associate director for the Global Automotive Practice at Strategy Analytics called a potential Apple self-driving car "a pointless endeavor, an unwanted headache and a potentially disastrous customer experience."

"The 'iCar' sounded sexy and exciting five years ago," he told TechNewsWorld. "After five years of frustrating iPhone experiences, I am not sure the market is seeking this solution anymore."

"Consumers are excited about companies like Rivian and Nikola and Nio and Polestar and a host of other Chinese wannabes," he said. "Plus, we now have the Ford Mach-E, and it looks like a Corvette EV is on the way. So, Apple? New battery tech? Who cares?"

Healthy Balance Sheet

James Hodgson, the principal analyst for smart mobility and automotive at ABI Research, said that Apple's entry into the automotive market feels like it's been a long time coming.

"There's been some noticeable hires and some acquisitions, so they've been dancing around the edges of automotive for a while," he told TechNewsWorld.

However, he added, "They have the scale and adequate cash on hand to investigate these opportunities without committing to them."

Hodgson acknowledged surprise by the report that Apple would adopt a conventional vehicle manufacturing-sale business model for its big foray into automotive.

"Being just another player in the market building and selling vehicles is not the angle that Apple's competitors' have taken," he observed. "They've taken a broad mobility play rather than the box-on-wheels play."

Low Margins

Hodgson confessed he would be "very, very surprised if Apple were to enter into the traditional automotive market: build a box on wheels for as little as you can and sell it for the most you can. That would seem strange to me."

One reason it's strange is the size of the automotive versus the mobility market. Hodgson estimated automotive to be a US$2 trillion market, compared to the $10 trillion mobility market.

"That's what's caused players with a technology background to enter the mobility market," he explained.

Another reason it's strange are the traditional profit margins of the auto business.

"Historically, the auto industry is not incredibly profitable," Betts explained. "If you're selling products with 40 percent margins, why would you want to sell cars? No one has ever made a 40 percent margin on a car."

Time Is Right?

If the mobility market is larger and automotive market margins thin, why build a self-driving vehicle?

"Apple might do this in order to avoid simply giving its billions back to its investors in the form of dividends," Lanctot speculated, "or because of an inability to identify any more-attractive markets to enter or companies to buy."

Hodgson added that the timing may be right to enter the market.

"The reason you see new entries into the auto market now is because of electrification," he explained. "The big barrier to entering the market has been the internal combustion engine. Building one, making it safe and economical, meeting government standards is all really hard."

"That barrier is being removed," he continued. "Tesla took advantage of that. It enabled it to bypass that legacy hurdle that prevented new competitors from entering the automotive market."

Still, significant barriers remain. There's a complex supply chain made up of tier-one suppliers who integrate products from tier-two suppliers. There are numerous standards and regulations governing safety, emissions and sustainability. A distribution network of dealers needs to be built -- and it can take three to five years to build a vehicle that needs to survive on the road for 10 to 15 years.

"That's why building cars is difficult and there are so few automakers that can do it," Hodgson said.

Brand Power

If Apple goes into auto making, it will have to offer consumers something its competitors can't.

"Unfortunately, Apple has nothing to offer," Lanctot maintained. "Most of the experiences that Apple pioneered -- app access and management, content management and delivery, e-commerce, user interfaces -- have been met and surpassed by competitors."

But Hodgson argued that Apple is in a good position to take advantage of what's going to be important to future auto buyers.

"The old differentiator in automotive was an engine that's smooth and efficient and exciting," he explained. "That's not going to be as important in the future. Future differentiators are going to be about compelling digital experiences."

Apple also has another powerful magnet to pull people to its self-driving car.

"You can't undersell the power of the brand," Betts observed. "Even if Apple just makes a car with its logo on it, people are going to be lined up to buy it, just like they're lined up at the mall now when a new iPhone comes out."